The report dated December 09, 2011 reflects our unemployment numbers for week-ending December 03, 2011. During this week, 2,844 initial claims were filed in Utah compared to 3,135 the prior week. The numbers listed below are based on the 4-week moving average.
- 2,797 initial UI claims filed (increase of 51 from the prior week and decrease of 518 from same week in 2010)
- 20,788 continued UI weeks claimed (increase of 776 from the prior week and decrease of 4,801 from same week in 2010)
- 12,561 continued EUC08 weeks claimed (increase of 58 from the prior week and decrease of 7,566 from same week in 2010)
Why does it look like Utah’s numbers seem to be going up and down, while the national numbers are fairly consistent in their descent? The answer lies in how the data is displayed. The number which most frequently appears in the news is based on the national four-week average of seasonally adjusted initial claims. This number has been hovering around 400,000 and currently sits at 387,750.
The numbers that Utah reports to DOL and that are posted on this blog are not seasonally adusted. Stacy Neal wrote an article regarding seasonal adjustments for our bimonthly Trendlines magazine (available here). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also provides an explanation (available here).
When we take out the adjustment for seasonal factors and any 4-week averages and look straight at the number of initial claims filed, the numbers look like the attached graph.
There is much more fluctuation in the weekly counts. It is expected that every year (generally around October or November), there will be an influx of initial claims as certain weather-related industries slow down. Utah’s seasonal factors also include calendar quarter changes (see previous post here), which can affect whether or not there are enough wages to establish a claim and if so, what will be the benefit amount. The seasonal factor shows the anticipated cycle of increases and decreases in weekly claim filing based on these known effects.
Both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted views can provide insight into our economy. Unadjusted data shows the actual ebb and flow of claims filing. Seasonally adjusted data shows variations (like the most recent recession) that occur outside of seasonal factors. A comparison of Utah to the national adjusted and unadjusted numbers shows that we’re following similar trends.
