According to a recent report by the Congressional Budget Office, long-term unemployment may "produce a self-perpetuating cycle wherein protracted spells of unemployment heighten employers' reluctance to hire those individuals, which in turn leads to even longer spells of joblessness." Policymakers and researchers alike tend to believe that this adverse effect of a long spell of unemployment undermines the smooth functioning of the labor market and entails large social costs. Economists refer to the phenomenon as "negative duration dependence."
In Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment (NBER Working Paper No. 18387), authors Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange, and Matthew Notowidigdo confirm that the likelihood of receiving a callback for a job interview sharply declines with unemployment duration. This effect is especially pronounced during the first eight months after becoming unemployed. Their estimates suggest that this effect is quantitatively important, and that duration dependence is stronger when jobs are relatively abundant. These results imply that employers statistically discriminate against workers with longer unemployment durations and that employer screening plays an important role in generating duration dependence. NBER
