The ICSC estimate is in contrast to the 0.7% sales increase MasterCard Advisors said it saw in the two months leading up to Christmas. Mastercard's estimate is for sales using cash, check and all credit cards in key holiday categories, including luxury goods, clothing, electronics and furnishings, as well as online sales. Still, Mastercard says it represents just 30% to 35% of the U.S. retail sales except for cars, groceries and restaurants.
Last year, Mastercard's estimate for the same period was up 2%. The official National Retail Federation tally of 2011's sales, however, showed they were up 5.6%.
MasterCard did note that sales the week after Christmas account for about 15% of holiday sales, so that could brighten the picture. And the National Retail Federation is sticking to its estimate that holiday sales will be up 4.1%.
When shoppers show up to redeem gift cards and return or exchange gifts, they often spend far more than the value of the gifts or cards. Gift cards are the most popular last minute gift, according to a Consumer Reports poll. And their sales aren't counted until they are redeemed.
Michael McNamera, vice president of research for Mastercard Advisors Spending Pulse, agrees the big winter storm that hit northern areas of the country may well have kept people home, but could have benefitted online sales.
Online sales Christmas Day were up 22.4% for over Christmas 2011, according to the IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark, out Wednesday. All those new iPads may have paid off for other retailers. The iPad drove more retail shopping than any other mobile device - with 12.5% of online sales.
Niemira said the weekly sales out today were being compared to a week last year that included Christmas Eve, so he expects current week's sales will be boosted even more by the calendar shift. His group is holding to its prediction of a 4% to 4.5% increase in December retail sales and a 3.0% increase overall for the holiday season. USA Today
