Long-Term Employment Projections

The long-term employment projections have been updated for the time period of 2012 to 2022. Projections are produced for the state of Utah as well as for eight sub-state areas. The areas are determined by population and job density and are not created equal. But rather, types of jobs are determined by the nature of the local area’s economy. Short-term projections for 2012 to 2014 are also provided for statewide.

The value in providing these projections is to help identify which types of jobs are most likely to be in high demand in the future. Ultimately, the long-term employment projections act as a forecasting measure by which individuals as well as organizations and agencies can plan ahead.

See the latest long-term projections produced by DWS for the State of Utah.

A Story of Wage Data

The Wages and Income page has a new look to the wage data that is gathered by the Workforce Research and Analysis division. Along with visualization of the data, you can now read story points at the top of each graph, to help understand what the data is showing you along with highlighting its insights. Just click along the story points at the top of the visualization to follow the story of wages.

Back to School

As part of its “Facts for Features” series, the U.S. Census Bureau regularly provides interesting data tidbits for special dates and occasions. They just recently released their “Back to School” statistics.

This week, public-school students in Washington County return to classrooms from summer vacation. So, the timing seems right to cover a few interesting statistics on education in Utah. . .


From the Utah State Office of Education:

In the 2011-2012 school year, white non-Hispanic students comprised 88 percent of total public school students. Hispanic/Latino students accounted for another 16 percent of students.

•  
•  Utah public schools maintained 555 elementary schools, 170 middle/junior high schools and 136 high schools in 2011-2012.
  
• More than 26,000 licensed classroom teachers provided education to Utah students in public schools.
  
• Utah’s public-school pupil-teacher ratio measured 22 students compared to 16 students nationwide.
  
• In October 2012, roughly 601,000 students were enrolled in public schools; 50,800 of those students attended charter schools. 

From the Utah Department of Workforce Services: 

•  In 2012, more almost 38,000 workers were employed in private educational services. An additional 66,800 employees worked in public education and another 39,100 individuals worked in public higher education.
  
• Payroll for educational services (public and private) totaled more than $4.7 billion.
  
• The median wages for school teachers in Utah are as follows: $47,800 for elementary school teachers, $50,400 for secondary school teachers and $50,800 for middle school teachers.
  
• Projected average annual openings for school teachers in Utah equals almost 1,200 per year (includes new jobs and turnover). 

From the American Community Survey:

• In 2011, 90 percent of the Utah population over the age of 25 had a high school diploma; almost 30 percent had a bachelor’s degree or higher.
  
• Approximately 259,000 Utahns were enrolled in college or graduate/professional schools in 2011.
  
• Roughly 13 percent of the 2011 Utah population 18 years and older was enrolled in college or graduate school.
  
• About 4 percent of the population 35 years and older were enrolled in some type of schooling.
  
• Roughly 15 percent of Utah school-age children (5-17 years) spoke a language other than English at home.
  
• In 2011, Utah the median earnings for workers with a bachelor’s degree measured $14,400 than the median earnings for workers with just a high school education.

One of every 11 Utahns in poverty are college students

New U.S. Census Bureau data released Monday show that one of every 11 Utahns currently counted as living in poverty is a college student. (Poverty rates have included students who live off-campus, but those living in campus dormitories were already excluded from general poverty counts).

The number is much higher in some college towns and provides perhaps a different picture about the causes and cures for poverty there.

In Provo — home of Brigham Young University — the overall poverty rate is 32.5 percent. It drops to 21.5 percent when college students are excluded, down about 11 percentage points. That means one of every three people currently counted as living in poverty for the period of 2009-11 there are university students.

In Logan — home of Utah State University — the overall poverty rate of 31 percent drops to 24.6 percent when college students are taken out, a drop of 6.4 percentage points. It means one of every five people included in poverty rates there are students.



College "is a time in many people’s lives when they are not fully engaged in the labor force. They are investing in themselves, so they are borrowing money," said Pam Perlich, senior research economist at the University of Utah. "Education is an investment, so it [college poverty] is a short-term situation."

But impoverished students face the same daily challenges as others living in poverty.

Myla Dutton, executive director of Community Action Services and Food Bank in Provo says university students may have more resources available to them — such as help from parents — and challenges tend to be temporary.

Because of that, Bill Hulterstrom, president and CEO of the United Way of Utah County, says, his organization is focused on other low-income populations.

Some officials said they are actually surprised that students don’t account for more of the poverty in some college towns — and the new numbers may show bigger long-term problems than imagined.

Similarly, Roger Jones, executive director of the Bear River Association of Governments that oversees some anti-poverty programs in Cache, Box Elder and Rich counties, said the 24.6 percent poverty rate in Logan without counting students "surprises me. It’s higher than I thought."

Separating out students from others in poverty may help give a clearer picture of different causes of poverty, and help better target programs to overcome them, Perlich said.

It could help with some public relations, too. Provo for years has turned up in stories alongside such cities as Detroit and New Orleans as places with among the nation’s highest poverty — although causes and solutions may now be more easily shown as quite different.

But that doesn’t mean the community can afford to ignore what is a real challenge, say leaders.

The new data comes from the 2009-2011 American Community Survey, and is in a new working paper entitled, "Examining the Effect of Off-Campus College Students on Poverty Rates."

Following are some data about other Utah areas with universities:

• Sanpete County, home of Snow College in Ephraim. Its overall poverty rate is 16.1 percent. It
  drops to 12.2 percent without students, a drop of 3.9 percentage points.
• Cedar City, home of Southern Utah University. Its overall poverty rate is 24.5 percent.
  Without students, it drops to 21 percent, a drop of 3.5 percentage points.
• St. George, home of Dixie College. The overall poverty rate of 15 percent drops to 13 percent
  without students, down 2 percentage points.
• Salt Lake City. Its poverty rate of 20.8 percent drops to 18.9 percent without students, a drop
  of 1.8 percentage points.
• Orem, home to Utah Valley University. The poverty rate of 15.5 percent drops to 14 percent
  without students, down 1.5 percentage points.
• Ogden, home of Weber State University. Its poverty rate of 23.7 percent drops to 22.6

percent without students, down 1.1 percentage points.

Salt Lake Tribune

Utah lawmakers debate how to turn education into jobs

S.B. 169 Education Task Force was passed and signed, March of 2013. One of the task force’s duties is to make recommendations on the alignment of both public education and higher education with the state’s economic development goals and workforce needs, according to last meeting’s agenda. The Department of Workforce Services and the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce described methods of forecasting the number and types of occupations and the educational demand corresponding to those occupations.

In a presentation from the Department of Workforce Services, John Krantz, a research economist for the department presented Occupational Projections and Education Requirements. Krantz explained both the Bureau of Labor Statistics and DWS’ approach to long-term occupational projection methodology and determination of education levels by occupation.

To see this presentation, click here.

For more meeting information, see the Utah State Legislature website.

Analysis of the public lands debate in Utah

Deseret News

The federal government owns around 635 million acres, or 28% of the land comprising the United States. Within Utah, nearly 67% of the state’s total acreage, or 35 million acres, is owned by the federal government. Throughout the nation’s history, groups have debated who should control this land and how it should be managed. In 2012, the Utah State Legislature passed the Transfer of Public Lands Act (TPLA), which demands the United States transfer an estimated 20 million acres of public lands to the State of Utah before December 31, 2014.

Supporters of the TPLA argue that increased economic activity on public lands would solve the state’s education funding problems. However, this argument does not consider the history of education funding in Utah. In 1995, Utah had the seventh highest funding effort for K-12 education in the country. Since that time, the funding effort has steadily declined, and Utah now ranks 32nd. Education funding in Utah is low because of changes to property taxes in Utah and the way education funds are dedicated. Access to federal land may not be the reason for Utah’s low education funding, but greater economic activity on those lands could provide new sources of funding that would benefit education. Utah Foundation

New college grads are waking up to a huge debt hangover

Seventy percent of students in the college class of 2013 are graduating with an average of $35,200 in credit and student loan debt. Only 30% are graduating debt-free.

If they had a better understanding of debt when starting college, 39% said they would have made different choices. That's a 14% jump from the same survey in 2011.

Likely thanks to the crushing blow of the Great Recession, more students said they considered the "hireability" factor of different majors –– 57% said they picked their major based on their prospects of finding a high-paying job.

When it comes to paying for college, the earlier you start to strategize and save, the better. There are useful tools out there, many of which can be found at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's website, which has a page just for students.

For pre-college students, check out their guide to paying for college.

For new graduates saddled with debt, check out this guide on how to start paying off your loans.

Business Insider

Utah Educational Data

Utah has a robust state student longitudinal data system, collecting on a wide range of student data. The Utah State Office of Education also uses the Comprehensive Administration of credentials for Teachers in Utah Schools (CACTUS) system, which maintains the licensure status of all individuals qualified to teach in Utah public schools. Using these sources and other collections, USOE reports on a wide range of data related to public education in the state.

Data collected also includes, accountability, adult education, special education and the ability for data
request. Utah State Office of Education

The benefits of completing college

The Utah Women and Education Initiative has just completed a set of “Benefits of Completing College” At-A Glance Sheets for use in classrooms, churches, families, nonprofits, community groups, etc. The sheets include an Introduction and Overview as well as six one-pagers on the following topics:

• Better Jobs and Higher Pay
• Healthier and Happier Lifestyles
• Confident, Stronger Sense of Self
• Intellectual and Reasoning Abilities
• Parenting
• Society
• Utah Women—Know the Facts  
• General Lesson Plans

Utah Women and Education Initiative

Multilingual in the West

States that have passed English-only laws aren't typically the sort to shower money on bilingual education. Utah, which declared English its sole official language in 2000, seems to be an exception. The New York Times recently reported that the state is expanding its language-immersion programs for young students. French, Spanish, Portuguese and Mandarin are currently on the docket. German and Arabic might follow.

Public schools' immersion programs could change the way Utahns think of foreign languages in their midst. Utah's language programs are an important step forward. In the last two decades, Salt Lake City has become more diverse than most Americans realize. With such a public embrace of multilingualism, the state could shed its monocultural reputation entirely. The Economist

Average Starting Salary for Grads With Bachelor’s Degrees Rises 5.3 Percent

Liberal arts and sciences/general studies and history are the top-paid liberal arts majors for Class of 2013 college graduates, according to results of NACE’s April 2013 Salary Survey.

While Salary Survey doesn’t report all positions obtained for each major, following are some of the job titles for these liberal arts graduates:

• Liberal arts and sciences/general studies—Teaching positions
• History—Teaching positions, miscellaneous managers, and paralegals/legal assistants
• English—Teaching positions; social workers and counselors; miscellaneous managers; and paralegals/legal assistants
• Visual and performing arts—Teaching positions; producers and directors; artists and related workers; editors, designers, and photographers. 

NACE

What does she want to be when she grows up?

There is a greatness in girls that's hard to suppress. With a supportive environment, today's girls will become tomorrow's role models, leaders, and captains of industry. Support makes all the difference. Take time today to participate, speak up, and invest.

Empowering girls to be leaders tomorrow is the focus of the Girl Scouts and their partners. Does she imagine she can become whatever she wants to be? Is she growing up in an environment that supports her future success?

Check out this video to shed some light on the state of girls today. To Get Her There

Higher Education, Merit‐Based Scholarships, and Post‐Baccalaureate Migration

Fifteen U.S. states currently have broad-based college merit scholarship programs (including Utah). Based on either high school grade point averages or scores on college entrance exams, these in-state tuition scholarships are awarded to at least 30 percent of each state's graduating high school class. In total, the 15 states spend about $2,191 per recipient or $1.4 billion per year. The aid programs appear to slightly increase the probability that residents born in the state live there after college, but they may also decrease the probability that people attain a four-year college degree.

In the NBER Working Paper No. 18530, co-authors Maria Fitzpatrick and Damon Jones use Census and American Community Survey data to track college attendance, college completion, and residential decisions of 24-to-32 year olds between 1990 and 2010. National Bureau of Economic Research

Measuring College Prestige vs. Cost of Enrollment

The cost of a college education these days ranges from expensive to obscenely expensive. So the decision is likely to be tougher and more emotional than most parents and children imagined as they weigh offers from colleges that have given real financial aid against others that are offering just loans.

While some students will be able to go to college only if they receive financial aid and others have the resources to go wherever they want, most fall into a middle group that has to answer this question: Do they try to pay for a college that gave them little financial aid, even if it requires borrowing money or using up their savings, because it is perceived to be better, or do they opt for a less prestigious college that offered a merit scholarship and would require little, if any borrowing? It’s not an easy decision. New York Times

STEM careers demand risk-taking

While 95 percent of teens agree that risk-taking is required for innovation in science, technology, engineering and mathematics — or STEM — careers, 46 percent say they are afraid to fail or uncomfortable taking risks to solve problems, according to an ASQ survey conducted by Kelton Global.

The survey, which was fielded in January in advance of National Engineers Week Feb. 17–23, reveals that students’ pressure to succeed may be driven by parents, of whom 81 percent are uncomfortable if their child does not perform well in sports, extracurricular activities or social situations. Of those parents, 73 percent say they feel uncomfortable when their child gets bad grades.

While nearly half of students are afraid or uncomfortable about failing, Cheryl Birdsong-Dyer, an ASQ member and professional process engineer, said failing — and more importantly, trying again — is a pivotal skill in problem solving.

According to the survey, 88 percent of students say they feel the pressure to succeed, 71 percent of those 88 percent say failing a class makes them feel they have not succeeded. Seventy-eight percent of girls feel unsuccessful when they fail a class, compared to 64 percent of boys. ASQ

What is UtahFutures?

Fewer Children are Attending Private Schools. What’s Going On?

Click to Enlarge

Data from several surveys, including the Current Population Survey and American Community Survey, show a decline in private school enrollment over the last decade. A working paper just released from the U.S. Census Bureau compares trends across datasets and subgroups and explores possible underlying causes of the decline in enrollment.

Here are a few basic findings from the white paper:

• Data from several surveys show that, while overall school enrollment has been increasing, a decline in private school enrollment took place in the last decade. 
• The decline in private school enrollment occurred at all school levels but was concentrated among schools that were larger, religiously affiliated, and in cities and suburbs. 
• Preliminary analysis suggests that growth in charter schools may be contributing to private school enrollment declines. 
• Growth in home schooling may be another factor. 
• Data for Utah suggest that enrollments in charter schools have risen substantially while at the same time private-school enrollments have fallen.

To access the entire white paper, click here. 

Click to Enlarge

Women in the Labor Force: A Databook

Over the past 4 decades, women have made notable changes in their labor force activities. Labor force participation is significantly higher among women today than it was in the 1970s, particularly among women with children, and larger shares of women are working full time and year round. In addition, women have increasingly attained higher levels of education: among women ages 25 to 64 who are in the labor force, the proportion with a college degree roughly tripled from 1970 to 2011. Women’s earnings as a proportion of men’s earnings also have grown over time. In 1979, women working full time earned 62 percent of what men did; in 2011, women’s earnings were 82 percent of men’s.

This report presents historical and current labor force and earnings data for women and men from the Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS is a national monthly survey of approximately 60,000 households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Women’s labor force participation rate peaked at 60.0 percent in 1999, following several decades in which women increasingly entered the labor market. In 2011, 58.1 percent of women were in the labor force, down 0.5 percentage point from 2010.

The educational attainment of women ages 25 to 64 in the labor force has risen substantially over the past 40 years. In 2011, 37 percent of these women held college degrees, compared with 11 percent in 1970. About 7 percent of women had less than a high school diploma (that is, did not graduate high school) in 2011, down from 34 percent in 1970.

In 2011, women accounted for 51 percent of all persons employed in management, professional, and related occupations, somewhat more than their share of total employment (47 percent). The share of women in specific occupations within this large category varied. For example, 14 percent of architects and engineers and 34 percent of physicians and surgeons were women, whereas 61 percent of accountants and auditors and 82 percent of elementary and middle school teachers were women.

Women who worked full time in wage and salary jobs had median usual weekly earnings of $684 in 2011. This represented 82 percent of men’s median weekly earnings ($832). Among women, earnings were higher for Asians ($751) and Whites ($703) than for Blacks ($595) and Hispanics ($518). Women’s-to-men’s earnings ratios were higher for Blacks and Hispanics (both 91 percent) than for Whites (82 percent) and Asians (77 percent). Users should note that the comparisons of earnings in this report are on a broad level and do not control for many factors that may be significant in explaining earnings differences.

In 2011, 27 percent of employed women usually worked part time—that is, fewer than 35 hours per week. In comparison, 11 percent of employed men usually worked part time.

To read more of this report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, click here.

Repositioning higher education

It’s been a lean time for higher education, and Snow College may be in the toughest situation of any school in the state, said Utah Sen. Ralph Okerlund.

“It’s not just a Snow College thing, cuts are going on at campuses across the state,” Okerlund said. “We as a Legislature have asked them to look at their models and make sure they are providing the most bang for our buck.”

What constitutes the most bang for the taxpayers’ buck, according to the Legislature?

“It’s tougher in rural areas where there are not as many employment opportunities, so we have to be smart,” Okerlund said.

Okerlund said the change in The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saint’s missionary policy would affect Snow for the next two to three years. Due to the composition of Snow’s student body, the change will have a more dramatic effect on Snow than any other institution in the state, Okerlund said. The loss has been projected to be more than $2 million in lost tuition over the course of the next year.



The debate over the future of Snow College Richfield spilled over into a Richfield City Council meeting Feb. 12.

“They are cutting a lot of things,” said Mike Turner, city council member. He said he is concerned about the closure of programs, the cuts in funding at the Snow Richfield campus, and the potential effect on Richfield’s economy.

Turner said he had talked with Noel Bailey, who is part of a group of retired employees from Snow Richfield that has expressed displeasure with cuts to programs at the campus.

The group of former college officials met with the state auditor’s office in October 2012 to express six concerns, including how a legislative budget line item for $1.2 million for career and technical education is spent. Read more on this subject: Richfield Reaper

The scoop about the costs and benefits of student loans

Student loan debt has already surpassed credit card debt and tipped the scales at more than $1 trillion, according to Consumer Finance Protection Bureau reports.

Because of this, many people have become upset about why their tax money is being used by the federal government for student loans in the first place.

This brings up an important thing to consider, namely, what are the real costs of federal student loan lending, and what are the tangible benefits?

Cost: In 2012, the federal student loan default rate was calculated to be 13.4 percent. But despite this substantial default rate, about 80 percent of defaulted federal student loan debt gets recovered successfully, according to the U.S. Department of Education.

Once you factor in the 80 percent recovery rate for defaulted federal loans (including collection costs), less than 3 percent of all original money lent out to borrowers is ever lost, according to the U.S. Department of Education.

However, 3 percent of $1 trillion is still a considerable cost — especially when you add in the amount of student loans that will be written off once the IBR program reaches 25 years. This amount is especially poignant, since it’s coming out of taxpayer’s pockets. Does this cost outweigh the benefits?
The benefits: If the federal government was not investing in student loan lending, this might prevent more than half of all students in the U.S. from having the financial means to attend college.

The requirements for receiving federal student loans target the students who would not be able to afford advanced schooling otherwise. These students likely would not qualify to receive a typical bank loan.

In addition to the students themselves, everyone in society benefits from government’s spending in higher education — especially in the form of financial return. Over their working lives, people ages 25 to 34 with bachelor’s degrees earned 114 percent more than those without a high school diploma.

Plus, those with advanced degrees earned two to three times as much as high school graduates, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The higher earnings of educated workers are also generating higher tax payments at the local, state and federal levels.

Even if you didn’t benefit from federal aid yourself, chances are that many of the people you work with and rely upon wouldn’t be where they are without it.

Federal student loan lending practices may not be perfect, but they’re a positive step in the direction of fostering a better social and national quality of life. Deseret News