Showing posts with label Senior Business Analyst--Michelle Beebe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Senior Business Analyst--Michelle Beebe. Show all posts

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims Report is now available from DOL. The 4-week moving average of nationwide initial claims has decreased from the revised number of 394,250 last week to 387,750 this week.

The report dated December 09, 2011 reflects our unemployment numbers for week-ending December 03, 2011. During this week, 2,844 initial claims were filed in Utah compared to 3,135 the prior week. The numbers listed below are based on the 4-week moving average.

  • 2,797 initial UI claims filed (increase of 51 from the prior week and decrease of 518 from same week in 2010)
  • 20,788 continued UI weeks claimed (increase of 776 from the prior week and decrease of 4,801 from same week in 2010)
  • 12,561 continued EUC08 weeks claimed (increase of 58 from the prior week and decrease of 7,566 from same week in 2010)

Why does it look like Utah’s numbers seem to be going up and down, while the national numbers are fairly consistent in their descent? The answer lies in how the data is displayed. The number which most frequently appears in the news is based on the national four-week average of seasonally adjusted initial claims. This number has been hovering around 400,000 and currently sits at 387,750.

The numbers that Utah reports to DOL and that are posted on this blog are not seasonally adusted. Stacy Neal wrote an article regarding seasonal adjustments for our bimonthly Trendlines magazine (available here). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also provides an explanation (available here).

When we take out the adjustment for seasonal factors and any 4-week averages and look straight at the number of initial claims filed, the numbers look like the attached graph.

There is much more fluctuation in the weekly counts. It is expected that every year (generally around October or November), there will be an influx of initial claims as certain weather-related industries slow down. Utah’s seasonal factors also include calendar quarter changes (see previous post here), which can affect whether or not there are enough wages to establish a claim and if so, what will be the benefit amount. The seasonal factor shows the anticipated cycle of increases and decreases in weekly claim filing based on these known effects.

Both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted views can provide insight into our economy. Unadjusted data shows the actual ebb and flow of claims filing. Seasonally adjusted data shows variations (like the most recent recession) that occur outside of seasonal factors. A comparison of Utah to the national adjusted and unadjusted numbers shows that we’re following similar trends.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims Report is now available from DOL. The 4-week moving average of nationwide initial claims has decreased from the revised number of 396,250 last week to 393,250 this week.
The report dated December 03, 2011 reflects our unemployment numbers for week-ending November 26, 2011. During this week, 3,135 initial claims were filed in Utah compared to 2,506 the prior week. The numbers listed below are based on the 4-week moving average.
  • 2,746 initial UI claims filed (increase of 138 from the prior week and decrease of 444 from same week in 2010)
  • 20,012 continued UI weeks claimed (increase of 756 from the prior week and decrease of 4,737 from same week in 2010)
  • 12,503 continued EUC08 weeks claimed (increase of 67 from the prior week and decrease of 7,750 from same week in 2010)

Friday, December 2, 2011

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims Report is now available from DOL. The 4-week moving average of nationwide initial claims has increased from the revised number of 395,250 last week to 395,750 this week.

Report dated November 26, 2011 reflects our unemployment numbers for week-ending November 19, 2011. During this week, 2,506 initial claims were filed in Utah compared to 2,704 the prior week. The numbers listed below are based on the 4-week moving average.

  • 2,609 initial UI claims filed (increase of 101 from the prior week and decrease of 348 from same week in 2010)
  • 19,256 continued UI weeks claimed (increase of 558 from the prior week and decrease of 4,797 from same week in 2010)
  • 12,436 continued EUC08 weeks claimed (increase of 71 from the prior week and decrease of 7,819 from same week in 2010)

Monday, November 28, 2011

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims Report is now available from DOL. The 4-week moving average of nationwide initial claims has decreased from the revised number of 397,500 last week to 394,250 this week.

Report dated November 19, 2011 reflects our unemployment numbers for week-ending November 12, 2011. During this week, 2,704 initial claims were filed in Utah compared to 2,640 the prior week. The numbers listed below are based on the 4-week moving average.

  • 2,508 initial UI claims filed (increase of 133 from the prior week and decrease of 330 from same week in 2010)
  • 18,698 continued UI weeks claimed (increase of 436 from the prior week and decrease of 4,903 from same week in 2010)
  • 12,364 continued EUC08 weeks claimed (increase of 58 from the prior week and decrease of 7,919 from same week in 2010)

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims Report is now available from DOL. The 4-week moving average of nationwide initial claims has decreased from the revised number of 400,750 last week to 396,750 this week.

Report dated November 12, 2011 reflects our unemployment numbers for week-ending November 5, 2011. During this week, 2,640 initial claims were filed in Utah compared to 2,585 the prior week. The numbers listed below are based on the 4-week moving average.

  • 2,375 initial UI claims filed (increase of 149 from the prior week and decrease of 290 from same week in 2010)
  • 18,262 continued UI weeks claimed (increase of 262 from the prior week and decrease of 4,997 from same week in 2010)
  • 12,306 continued EUC08 weeks claimed (increase of 45 from the prior week and decrease of 7,991 from same week in 2010)

The Department of Labor identifies a UI claim as one of three categories: State UI, federal (UCFE), and military (UCX). In evaluating an individual’s work history to establish their eligibility for a claim, any wages from a company or local government will classify the claim as “state UI,” even if there are also federal civilian or military wages. If the individual has only federal civilian wages or federal civilian and military wages, it will be classified as UCFE. If the individual has only military wages, it is a UCX claim. This classification is important because it determines how eligibility is established and it allows the government to track unemployment data for each group individually.

Over the last five years, the number of state UI claims filed each week has fluctuated between 800 and 5,200. This last week, we had 2,536 filed. Federal claims have fluctuated between 4 and 200 per week, with the most recent week at 92. Military claims have fluctuated between 2 and 30 per week, with the most recent week at 12. This comes to a total of 2,640 initial claims, as stated above. The attached chart shows the character of these fluctuations based on a 4-week moving average and illustrates how these groups follow different trends in the number of initial claims filed, though we often only see the trend of state UI claims reflected in the overall number.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims Report is now available from DOL. The 4-week moving average of nationwide initial claims has decreased from the revised number of 405,250 last week to 400,000 this week.

Report dated November 5, 2011 reflects our unemployment numbers for week-ending October 29, 2011. During this week, 2,585 initial claims were filed in Utah compared to 2,102 the prior week. The numbers listed below are based on the 4-week moving average.

  • 2,226 initial UI claims filed (increase of 33 from the prior week and decrease of 381 from same week in 2010)
  • 18,000 continued UI weeks claimed (increase of 177 from the prior week and decrease of 5,084 from same week in 2010)
  • 12,261 continued EUC08 weeks claimed (increase of 6 from the prior week and decrease of 8,006 from same week in 2010)

Historically, we see the beginning of an upward slope in the number of initial and continued claims filed around October. This tends to peak around January and then trend downwards. This is mainly due to seasonal employment, as less work becomes available in certain weather-related industries.

Friday, November 4, 2011

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

The latest Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims Report is now available from DOL. The 4-week moving average of nationwide initial claims has decreased from the revised number of 406,500 last week to 404,500 this week.

Report dated October 29, 2011 reflects our unemployment numbers for week-ending October 22, 2011. During this week, 2,102 initial claims were filed in Utah compared to 2,173 the prior week. The numbers listed below are based on the 4-week moving average.

  • 2,193 initial UI claims filed (increase of 80 from the prior week and decrease of 483 from same week in 2010)
  • 17,823 continued UI weeks claimed (increase of 97 from the prior week and decrease of 5,003 from same week in 2010)
  • 12,255 continued EUC08 weeks claimed (decrease of 30 from the prior week and decrease of 8,135 from same week in 2010)

With over 2,000 people filing initial claims, when can one expect a first payment? There are a few things to consider.

Monetary Eligibility

Are there enough wages to establish a claim? First, we look at all the qualifying wages paid within the first four of the last five completed calendar quarters (for November, this would be July 2010 to June 2011). A claimant must have earned at least $3,100 during this 12-month period in covered employment and the total earnings must equal 1.5 x the highest quarter of wages during this same time frame. At the risk of over-simplification, here are some examples of this calculation:

Assume Individual A began their very first job in February 2011 and was separated recently. She applied for Unemployment benefits this week.

Total base period wages = $5,000 (earnings from start of job to end of base period)

Highest quarter during base period = $3,000

1.5 x $3,000 = $4,500

Enough wages to establish a claim

Assume Individual B began a job in February 2011 and was separated recently. She applied for Unemployment benefits this week.

Total base period wages = $5,000 (earnings from start of job to end of base period)

Highest quarter during base period = $4,000

1.5 x $4,000 = $6,000

Not enough wages to establish a claim

If an individual is not eligible with the normal base period then we’ll evaluate wages in the last four completed calendar quarters (for November, this would be October 2010 to September 2011).

Employers are required to report wages every quarter for all of their covered employees. The majority of the time, eligibility is automatically established once the system evaluates the wages on file for a particular SSN. Individuals may receive an estimated benefit amount by clicking here.

A potential delay comes when there are missing wages or a question on whether or not wages are subject to UI. Perhaps Individual B worked in another state from 2009 to January 2011. We could contact the other state to find out if those wages are available for transfer to Utah or perhaps the individual could qualify for a higher benefit amount in that state. All states have their own rules for determining monetary eligibility and calculating the benefit amount. DOL recently published their annual Comparison of State Unemployment Laws.

Some other things to consider:

Are the wages reportable to UI (See R994-208)?

Is the employment covered by UI (See R994-204)?

Are there federal civilian or military wages? This requires sending a request to the federal government for permission to use these wages. For military wages, it also requires review of the DD-214 Member Copy 4.

Non-monetary Eligibility

To qualify for unemployment, one must be unemployed through no fault of their own, able and available for full-time work, and actively seeking full-time work.

When one party (whether employer or claimant) initiates the separation through a discharge or a voluntary quit, the issue is assigned to an adjudicator for review. The adjudicator provides an opportunity for all interested parties to provide an initial statement and rebuttal before making a decision on eligibility (see R994-405). To allow due process and timely decisions, deadlines are specified when an adjudicator leaves a voicemail or sends a letter. If no response is received by the deadline, then the adjudicator makes a decision with the best available information. Depending on the type of information needed and the difficulty in reaching interested parties, a decision may take a few weeks. Separation decisions are generally made within three weeks about 87% of the time.

The question of “able and available” takes into account any circumstances that could affect an individual’s ability to immediately accept a full-time job. Some examples are traveling, child care, school attendance, illness, transportation, the extent to which an individual is looking for suitable work, etc. These issues are also assigned to an adjudicator for review. There are certain situations where a claimant may be deferred from the active work search, such as union attachment in good standing, a history of seasonal employment, or a defined return to work date with a previous employer or start date with a new employer. However, even if a deferral from work search is granted, the individual still must maintain an ability to work. Non-separation decisions are generally made within three weeks about 94% of the time.

Should the claimant or employer disagree with the decision made by adjudication, they have the right to appeal (See R994-508)

Waiting Week

Utah law requires that the very first week a claimant is eligible for benefits (both monetarily and non-monetarily) be designated as a waiting week and no payment is issued (See Utah Code, 35A-4-403,1(d)).

Overall, first payments are generally made within three weeks about 96% of the time. All UI benefits are paid either through direct deposit or on the Utah Debit Card and are available 2-3 business days after the date benefits are released by the Department.